States Preview

It is the first weekend in November and that can only mean one thing, all of PA is converging on Hershey for the PIAA State XC Championship. Well maybe not all of PA, because high school football is still going on as well, but I digress.

This has been an epic year for PA and it is just getting started as we enter the championship phase of the season. The depth in PA from an individual and team standpoint has been outstanding and will lead to a day of mind-boggling performances on Saturday.

Girls AA
The big show gets starts off with the girls AA race. There will be three way battle upfront for the individual title between Carly Seymour (Central Cambria), Kacey Gibson (Neshanock), and Kara Millhouse (Boiling Springs). This will be the 4th and final time the trio does battle in Hershey. Here's how the last 3 years have broken down.

2004
Gibson 3rd; Millhouse 13th; Seymour 58th

2005
Seymour 1st; Millhouse 7th; Gibson 48th

2006
Gibson 1st; Seymour 2nd; Millhouse 4th

Millhouse has had a steady ascension throughout her career and Seymour and Gibson have both won titles. It will be war and a great way to start the day. All three will be gunning for the title, as it will be another indication of their fitness level before the Foot Locker Northeast Regional. They are focused and ready to lay it on the line over hill and dale in Hershey.

Seymour has some extra motivation as her Central Cambria Red Devils are looking to make it to the podium this year. They narrowly missed it last year with their third place finish. Central Cambria has only lost once this year in PA and that was 1-point defeat to the hands of Lewisburg at the Harry Groves Spiked Shoe Inivitational. Lewisburg lost one of their triumvirate to a stress fracture but reloaded with two key freshmen. Central Cambria is the team to beat but will face a tough challenge from Lewisburg. I predict after all is said and done, everyone will be be asking if they are the best girls team in the state regardless of AA or AAA classification.

Girls AAA
AAA girls are next on the schedule and will feature District 3 trying to claim both the individual and team title by way of Neely Spence (Shippensburg) and the Northern York Polar Bears. Neely Spence is the defending champ. When she races you see the determination in her eyes. She is on a mission this year. All of her races have been dominating performances as she has yet to be challenged in a race all season. Her first obstacle will likely surface on November 24th at the Foot Locker Northeast Regional, but that's looking ahead. Spence will look to defend her title and as she puts it, "check in on her current racing fitness level."

The race for the team title will be great, perhaps the closest of the day. The three favorites are Emmaus, Northern York, and Latrobe. Emmaus has been ranked number 1 all season by the PennTrackXC.com Top Ten rankings. Northern York and Latrobe continue to get stronger throughout the season. Natalie Bower (Greater Latrobe) and Rachel Wong (Northern York) will battle for the runner-up spot in AAA and hope their teams pack it in tight behind them as they look to upset Emmaus. They will be joined in that chase pack by Meghan Lutz (Nazareth Academy) as she also makes a run at a top-five finish.

Boys AA
In AA boys, the individual race is wide open. Someone will make a name for themselves as they step up and take control of the race in an effort to break the rest of the field. The early favorites are Alex Zubey (Tamaqua), Joe Beveridge (Bishop McDevitt), and Jim Spisak (Bishop McCort). All three won their district meet in a convincing fashion and appear to just be hitting their stride as the season is winding down. The field behind them will not let them get away easy as this is truly anybody's race.

The race for the team title will appear to be a rematch of the District 10 Championship with North East, West Middlesex, and General McLane trading blows once again. McLane was district champ, followed closely by North East and West Middlesex, respectively. They have held the top three spots in the PenntrackXC.com Top Ten Rankings for the last 8 weeks. In 2006, West Middlesex was victorious with General McLane in third. District 10 will try to occupy the top three team spots this year. But in what order? The race will come down to the wire as these three are very closely matched. The team competition will rival AAA girls for the closest of the day.

Boys AAA
The AAA Boys race should be called, Vince McNally (Conestoga Valley) vs. Chris Aldrich (West Chester Henderson): Round 1. Their individual battle has all the makings of heavyweight prizefight. Both were neck and neck the whole race at last year's meet but Aldrich was able to secure a 4th place finish ahead of McNally in fifth, but both athletes were given the same time, 15:29. Jason Weller (Boyertown) ran 15:04 to win last year's title. I think both athletes will beat that time and it will take between 14:50-55 to win. This one is too close to call. They both have had marvelous performances this year and it will definitely be a great race to close out the day. Several athletes will give chase to these two including Mark Denin (Boyertown), but Aldrich and McNally are the class of the field.

North Penn looks to keep the team title in District 1 as they continue their phenomenal season. They have dominated all foes that have come their way. If their #2 all-time average at the Manhattan Invite is not an indication of how special this team is, I don't know what is. North Allegheny, the preseason #1 and pre-states champion, will be in a tough battle with Upper Dublin and Cumberland Valley for the second spot on the podium. Cumberland Valley suffered a big defeat at the District 3 meet but should bounce back at States.

PennTrackXC.com PIAA State Champs Preview

Also on the line is a berth to the Mid-East Regional Championship. The top seniors at the state meet will earn an opportunity to represent PA in Ohio.

But this is just a preview with a few predictions, mainly for the fans as they will be fortunate to see an incredible day of racing. For the athletes, I wish you all the best of luck . When Saturday rolls around all the previews and predictions in the world will not matter because the races will not be decided on paper, or the web for that matter, they will be decided over the 3.1 mile layout of the Hershey Parkview Golf Course. Which is why ladies and gentlemen, we run the races.